2010 Election, National Politics, RedHatRob

Key Tea Party Election Results Today

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Here are the key races:

PA US Senate: Turncoat Snarlin’ Arlen Specter faces a real challenge in trying to win the Democratic nomination so he can win a 6th term in the Senate. His opponent in the primary is Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak, a retired navy admiral. Even if Arlen wins, he must still face a strong Republican, Pat Toomey in the general election in November. But if Arlen loses the primary today, the Tea Partiers will be smilin’.

AR US Senate: Democrat Senator Blanche Lincoln is being challenged by Democrat Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. Halter has made “change” the focus of his campaign [what, no “hope?”]. Lincoln’s vote for Obamacare was VERY unpopular in Arkansas. If she loses, the Tea Partiers will be smilin’.

KY US Senate: Newcomer Rand Paul, son of Cong. Ron Paul is challenging the establishment Republican candidate, Sec. of State Trey Grayson, to take over the seat of retiring Sen. Jim Bunning. Rand has been supported by the Tea Partiers and is way ahead in the polls. Tea Partiers are already smilin’.

There are several key House seats on the ballot as well. Special elections in PA and HI are being closely watched.

In Pennsylvania, there is a special election to fill the seat of the late John Murtha. Murtha held the seat for the Democrats for 36 years. But McCain carried the district in 2008. It’s close. Mark Critz, a long-time staffer for Murtha is the Democrat candidate. Newcomer Tim Burns is the Republican candidate. A Burns win would confirm that this is going to be a very big year for Republicans… and would make the Tea Partiers smile.

In Hawaii, there is a special election to fill the seat once held by Democrat Neil Abercrombie, who resigned to run for Governor. This is a weird race. Normally, Republicans wouldn’t stand a chance in this district. But the Democrats have two candidates who are feuding and splitting the vote. Democrat Colleen Hanabusa is president of the State Senate. Democrat Ed Case used to be the Congressman for this district. The local state Democrat bigwigs (including Sen. Inouye) are backing Hanabusa. Nancy Pelosi and Washington, DC Democrats are backing Case. The two Democrats are splitting the Democrat vote down the middle. In a special election, there are no primaries. So, against all odds, Republican Charles Djou, who serves on the City Council for Honolulu, is leading in the polls. If Djou wins, it will give the Democrats heartburn. . . and would make the Tea Partiers smile.

Five races to watch tonight.

2010 Election, National Politics

An Evening with Ann Coulter in Nashville

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An event I would LOVE to go to. Unfortunately, my son is getting married in Ohio on May 29th. You’ll should go and blog/tweet about it for the rest of us!

The is pleased to announce we are hosting our inaugural event, an evening with Ann Coulter. The date and time are May 29, 2010 from 5:30-9:00pm at the Sheraton Downtown Nashville. a Meet and Greet with Ann, an elegant 3 course dinner and a program to follow culminating with Ann’s remarks as the highlight of the event. The final item on the agenda is a book signing. Space is limited and seating is reserved with the best seats going to the first to register.

Also Appearing: Con Hunley, Marsha Blackburn, Glen Casada, and Jack Johnson.

The cost for the event is $175 per person to attend the pre-event networking with a cash bar, dinner, program, Ann’s remarks and the book signing. Seating will be “Reserved” by name with reservations being assigned from the front of the room to the back of the room on a first come-first served basis. We’re holding a silent auction of some very special Conservatively themed art work specially created for this event. There will also be a special presentation that evening the likes of which you have never seen before!

Tickets for the Meet and Greet with Ann are available at $500 per ticket. This grants access to the entire evening, beginning with the Meet and Greet at 5:30 through the book signing. There are only 48 of these tickets available. Each table for the evening will seat 12 persons. Table sponsorships are available for $3500 per table. Table sponsorships include the entire evening’s events AND 2 tickets to the 5:30 Meet and Greet with Ann. Table sponsors will receive priority table assignment.

You may pay for your tickets online at our website or by mailing your check with a note as to the seating package you desire to: NFC PAC Attn: “An Evening with Ann” 236 Gardenridge Drive Franklin, TN 37069

Download a flyer for An Evening with Ann Coulter for more information.

2010 Election, National Politics, Tennessee politics

How Many Congressional Seats will the Republicans Win in Tennessee? part 2

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Yesterday I wrote a post that reported and commented on the 1st quarter fund-raising in Tennessee congressional races, specifically TN-06 and TN-08. TN-01, TN-02, TN-03 and TN-07 are currently held by Republicans and there is effectively zero chance of a Democrat winning any of them. I predict TN-06 and TN-08 will be won by Republicans. TN-09 will stay safely Democrat. Just as an aside, incumbent Democrat Steve Cohen has raised $429,885 in individual contributions in 1Q-2010. Democrat challenger Willie Herenton raised $3,400. Cohen has outraised Herenton 100 to 1. Oh, and Cohen has over $1 million on hand. Herenton reported $5,400 in the bank.

Which leaves TN-04 and TN-05. TN-04 has been a Democrat seat for the overwhelming majority of the last 100 years. Van Hilleary won the seat in the 1994 Gingrich revolution. Lincoln Davis won it back for the Democrats in 2002 when Van ran for Governor (and lost to Phil Bredesen). Although the district previously elected Al Gore and Jim Cooper (before he left to run for Senate against Fred Thompson), it has trended more conservative and Republican and has been a competitive seat. In 2010, it’s going to be hard to defend. The first fund-raising reports certainly seem to indicate that this will be a horse-race. Here are the totals for individual contributions (not including PAC money or loans from candidates to their own campaigns):

R Scott Desjarlais $235,778
D Lincoln Davis $221,005
R Jack Bailey $143,575
R Kent Greenough $14,713
R Donald Strong $0

Either Desjarlais or Bailey looks poised to provide a strong challenge to Davis. If 2010 is like 1994, then Davis is in trouble.

TN-05 has been, after TN-09, the safest Democrat seat in the state. In 2008, Cooper raised $338k in individual contributions. His Republican challenger, Gerard Donovan, raised $8,610. In 2006, Cooper raised $471k – the records for his Republican challenger, Kovach aren’t available online. In 2004, Cooper raised $459k. Back in 2002, Republican Bob Duvall raised barely $10k to Cooper’s $864k. Of course 2002 was the first year Cooper was elected and he had first had to win a contested Democratic primary. None of Cooper’s Republican opponents have presented much of a challenge to him.  But the financial records show that the amount he has raised in individual contributions has trended down since 2002. Things look a bit different in 2010. For one thing, there are 11 candidates (8 Republicans, 2 Independents, and 1 Libertarian) who have filed to run against Cooper. The large number of candidates filing is a strong indication that something is up. And one of the Republicans (Jeff Hartline) has already raised more money for the race than all four of Cooper’s previous opponents combined (admittedly not that high a hurdle, but still significant). Here are the numbers:

D Jim Cooper $240,970
R Jeff Hartline $45,155
R Patrick Miranda $5,405
I Jacquie Miller $2,187
R Jarod Scott $1,105
L Stephen Collings $30
R Brendan Finucane $0
R David Hall $0
R Cecilia Noland-Heil $0
R Bob Ries $0
R Lonnie Spivak $0
I John Miglietta $0

Could Hartline beat Cooper? In a normal election year, the answer would be no. But 2010 is shaping up to be anything but a normal election year. Hartline looks to be the favorite to win the Republican nomination. If he is able to continue to raise money and can get his message out, Cooper could be vulnerable. Hartline appears to be a more effective speaker and campaigner than any of Cooper’s previous challengers.

If the 2010 tsunami is as big as some think it might be, then there is the distinct possibility that Tennessee might end up with eight Republicans and one Democrat in its congressional delegation. That result would have been unthinkable two years ago. It remains a long shot. But it has already gone from an impossibility to a possibility.

For those who have no idea who Jeff Hartline is, take about 4 minutes and watch this video:

and imagine going from this map:

to this map:

to this map:

2010 Election, National Politics, Tennessee politics

How Many Congressional Seats will the Republicans Win in Tennessee? part 1

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Tennessee has nine Congressional seats. For most of this the past century, seven of those seats were routinely occupied by Democrats, and two by Republicans. But the two east Tennessee Republicans have been joined by two others over the past few decades as TN-03 (Chattanooga) and TN-07 (Memphis suburbs to Nashville suburbs) switched to the R column.

Now it looks fairly certain that two more seats are about to be converted from Democrat to Republican. The demographics seem to indicate that the changes may well be semi-permanent. Bart Gordon is retiring from TN-06, and John Tanner is retiring from TN-08. Both incumbent Democrats were going to have a hard time getting re-elected had they stayed in the race.

Two other seats, currently held by Democrats Jim Cooper (TN-05) and Lincoln Davis (TN-04) are attracting a surprising amount of attention and activity. They could also be in play (more on them in a later post). Only TN-09 seems safely Democrat at this point, and it seems fairly certain that Steve Cohen will retain the seat – more on that later, as well.

Of all the races, TN-06 has attracted the most attention. There are six Republicans, three Democrats, and one independent who have filed for the race. First quarter financial reports have been filed with the FEC. Raising the most money doesn’t guarantee that a candidate will win, but it’s pretty strongly correlated. Here’s what the money looks like in TN-06. The dollar amount is the total raised from individual contributions (not counting PAC money, or loans from the candidates to their own campaigns), 1/1/2010 thru 3/31/2010:

R Jim Tracy $533,647
R Diane Black $271,591
R Lou Ann Zelenik $129,767
R Dale Evans $34,970
R Kerry Roberts $33,944
R Gary Mann $3,200
D George Erdel $375
D Brett Carter $0
I Tommy Hay $0
D Benjamin Leming $0

I’d say this one is definitely an “R” pickup.

TN-08 will be more of a horse race. There are ten candidates here as well, eight Republicans and two Democrats. One of the Democrats, Roy Herron seems poised to make this a contest. Here are the fund-raising numbers (Individual contributions – not counting PAC money, or loans from the candidates to their own campaigns):

R Steve Fincher $970,095
D Roy Herron $822,866
R Ron Kirkland $607,357
R George Flinn $156,355
R Donn Janes $10,937
R Randy Smith $300
R James Hart $142
D Luther Mercer $0
R David Rice $0
R Craig Steinfels $0

I’d give the edge to Fincher in this one right now, but there is still a long time till November.

IF the Republicans manage to win both these seats, then the 112th Congressional map for Tennessee will look like this:

Stay tuned – in part two, I’ll report and comment on the numbers from TN-04 and TN-05.

Modern History

The outstanding event of modern times

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“What is important in history is not only the events that occur but the events that obstinately do not occur. The outstanding event of modern times was the failure of religious belief to disappear. For many millions, especially in the advanced nations, religion ceased to play much or any part in their lives, and the ways in which the vacuum was filled, by fascism, Nazism and Communism, by attempts at humanist utopianism, by eugenics or health politics, by the ideologies of sexual liberation, race politics and environmental politics, form much of the substance of the history of our century. But for many more millions – for the overwhelming majority of the human race, in fact – religion continued to be a huge dimension in their lives. Nietzsche, who had so accurately predicted the transmutation of faith into political zealotry and the totalitarian will to power, failed to see that the religious spirit could, quite illogically, coexist with secularization, and so resuscitate his dying God. What looked antiquated, even risible, in the 1990s was not religious belief but the confident predictions of its demise once provided by Feuerbach and Marx, Durkheim and Frazer, Lenin, Wells, Shaw, Gide, Sartre and many others.”

– Paul Johnson, Modern Times, p. 700

Christian Worship, The 1960s

The Jesus Movement and the 1970s

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It’s been a day to reminisce about the Jesus Movement and the 1970s. In 1975, I was sophomore in college and teamed up with Bill Boyd (my future brother-in-law!) to host a Christian Music Show on Sunday mornings at WDAV. About all we had were a half-dozen albums by II Chapter of Acts, Larry Norman, Randy Stonehill, Barry McGuire, and later Pat Terry & James Ward. Keith Green came along a bit later.

Today, at church, we had a delightful 20 minute set by Randy Stonehill. He still has the wry sense of humor and commanding presence. “King of Hearts” brought tears to my eyes.

This afternoon, I watched “Fallen Angel,” the documentary on the life of Larry Norman. Larry was a revolutionary and a prophet and a musical genius. The movie will have its premier this week in Nashville. Here’s a preview:

More info on the film’s web site, here: http://www.fallenangeldoc.com/

In 1978, and 1979, I was part of the Inter-Varsity graduate group at Stanford. We arranged for a public lecture by Larry Norman (he brought his guitar and played a few songs as well), and then a full-bore concert by Randy Stonehill in the auditorium on campus. Randy brought the full band and played LOUD! But we loved it. Good times.

Here’s a clip of Larry singing one of his best-known songs, The Outlaw:

Here’s Randy singing King of Hearts:

I’m afraid James Ward and Pat Terry haven’t made it to YouTube, though I suppose there might be videos out there which will eventually be uploaded. They both have their own web sites though!

http://www.patterryonline.com/

http://www.jameswardmusic.com/

The 1960s

The Revolution will not be televised. . .

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Yesterday was my day to cover “America’s Suicide Attempt” in my year four western civ class. That’s Paul Johnson’s title for the chapter from Modern Times in which he describes events in the USA during the 1960s. He starts with the election of Kennedy, discusses the Bay of Pigs, the Cuban Missle Crisis, the Berlin Wall, the Assassination, Johnson election in 1964, the escalation of the Vietnam War and the overblown Great Society and War on Poverty initiatives that nearly wrecked the US economy. He mentions the riots in Detroit and LA and the social uproar in the US from 1968 & 1969. My students were a bit puzzled trying to grasp the mood of the country.

I showed this video from 1970 which my students found both sobering and helpful in catching the mood of the country at the end of the 1960s.

Gil Scott Herron wrote and recorded this provocative and wry piece. It is an example of black beat poetry that foreshadowed the later development of rap.

Take 2 minutes and listen [language warning at 1:40 for a couple of seconds]:

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BS3QOtbW4m0

Still resonates, I think.

2010 Election, National Politics

Sarah Palin must really scare them

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Change.org, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Obama, Inc, sent out an email today urging all of its members, affiliates, subscribers, & sychophants to “Send a powerful message to Discovery Communications expressing your disappointment at their action and urging them to drop Sarah Palin’s new show from their programming schedule.”

Said powerful message is conveniently supplied for you. All you have to do is sign your name – which 9,000 Obama-zombies dutifully did in the first hour.

Stop and think about this for a minute. Sarah Palin is a private citizen. She is, of course  the former governor of Alaska, and the 2008 Republican nominee for vice-president, but she currently holds no elected office. She’s not currently a candidate for any elected office.

But Team Obama thinks that the most important project of the week (they only send out one action call a week from Change.org) is to try to get her fired from the Discovery Channel.

Three comments:

A) this is outrageous conduct by a sitting president

B) Obama’s vendetta against Palin is petty, personal, and unbecoming

C) the shrill charges that Palin wanted to wipe out beluga whales and polar bears are just plain silly.

The bottom line message from all of this of course is, Obama is really, REALLY, scared of Sarah Palin.

Modern History

Tufte meets Flash

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This is one of the best presentations of data I have ever seen. It may be the shortest 20 minute talk you will ever listen to.

On one level, I am highly impressed by the elegant presentation of the data.

On a second level, I am fascinated by what the data shows – our conceptions of the world are rooted in data that is now 50 years old. In many ways the “developing third world” has caught up to the western world – at least in small family size and high incomes.

On a third level, there are still inequalities in health, especially infant mortality.

Unexamined in this presentation are the implications for nations whose fertility has fallen below replacement levels. In those nations, population will decline and there will be severe economic difficulties in funding pensions and healthcare for the elderly.

Still, watch the talk. One of the best from TED:

The Director's Blog – Rob Shearer, Francis Schaeffer Study Center, Mt. Juliet, TN