Because it is legitimately in play.
I am convinced the polls are faulty this year. Lots of others have analyzed them, but the basic critique boiled down is that faulty premises lead to faulty conclusions. The polls are a mathematical model. There are two ways they can err. If the data collected and input into the model is inaccurate, the model will yield inaccurate results. If the data are accurate, but the model does not accurately represent the election day total universe voter behavior, likewise the results will be inaccurate.
These two sources of error are in addition to the normal statistical problems of sampling errors and confidence limits. And the errors in both categories are biased in favor of democrats.
Data collection errors are rife this year. High refusal rates, deliberate deception by respondents, self-selection bias based on enthusiasm for a candidate, gaps between intent to vote and actual voting behavior, interviewer bias, shy voters, etc. Don’t even get me started on the Bradley effect.
Model errors won’t be known until after election day, but all of the pollsters have made changes in their turnout models because they are predicting that voter behavior will be different in 2008 from 2004. Ironically the massive numbers of ACORN fraudulent registrations tend to bias the polling results – because pollsters weight their results based upon the ratio of voters registered as democrats vs. voters registered as republicans.
The youth vote. Bottom line: youths do not vote. James Carville has been famously quoted as saying that there is a name for those candidates who depend upon the youth vote: “LOSERS!”
Back to Pennsylvania:
Gore won Pennsylvania by 3.5% in 2000 (205,000 votes).
Kerry won Pennsylvania by 2.5% in 2004 (140,000 votes)
Who in the class of readers today believes that Obama will be a stronger candidate in Pennsylvania than Gore or Kerry?
Class? Class? Anyone? Bueller?
Bitter. Clinging. Guns. Religion. Joe-the-Plumber. Bankrupting coal.
McCain takes Pennsylvania.
Game over.
Congratulations to John S. McCain, 44th President of the United States.
Hat tip to SeanMalstrom who has done a much more detailed analysis.