1 First of all, then, I urge that entreaties and prayers, petitions and thanksgivings, be made on behalf of all men,
2 for kings and all who are in authority, so that we may lead a tranquil and quiet life in all godliness and dignity.
3 This is good and acceptable in the sight of God our Savior,
4 who desires all men to be saved and to come to the knowledge of the truth.
1 Timothy, Chapter 2:1-4
Because it is legitimately in play.
I am convinced the polls are faulty this year. Lots of others have analyzed them, but the basic critique boiled down is that faulty premises lead to faulty conclusions. The polls are a mathematical model. There are two ways they can err. If the data collected and input into the model is inaccurate, the model will yield inaccurate results. If the data are accurate, but the model does not accurately represent the election day total universe voter behavior, likewise the results will be inaccurate.
These two sources of error are in addition to the normal statistical problems of sampling errors and confidence limits. And the errors in both categories are biased in favor of democrats.
Data collection errors are rife this year. High refusal rates, deliberate deception by respondents, self-selection bias based on enthusiasm for a candidate, gaps between intent to vote and actual voting behavior, interviewer bias, shy voters, etc. Don’t even get me started on the Bradley effect.
Model errors won’t be known until after election day, but all of the pollsters have made changes in their turnout models because they are predicting that voter behavior will be different in 2008 from 2004. Ironically the massive numbers of ACORN fraudulent registrations tend to bias the polling results – because pollsters weight their results based upon the ratio of voters registered as democrats vs. voters registered as republicans.
The youth vote. Bottom line: youths do not vote. James Carville has been famously quoted as saying that there is a name for those candidates who depend upon the youth vote: “LOSERS!”
Back to Pennsylvania:
Gore won Pennsylvania by 3.5% in 2000 (205,000 votes).
Kerry won Pennsylvania by 2.5% in 2004 (140,000 votes)
Who in the class of readers today believes that Obama will be a stronger candidate in Pennsylvania than Gore or Kerry?
Class? Class? Anyone? Bueller?
Bitter. Clinging. Guns. Religion. Joe-the-Plumber. Bankrupting coal.
McCain takes Pennsylvania.
Game over.
Congratulations to John S. McCain, 44th President of the United States.
Hat tip to SeanMalstrom who has done a much more detailed analysis.
We the People
The Story of Our Constitution
by Lynn Cheney, paintings by Greg Harlin
It is hard for us not to idealize the founding fathers. It is hard for us to put ourselves in their frame of mind. We know that the Republic endured. We know that the peaceful transfer of executive power has been faithfully observed for 220 years across the administrations of 43 presidents. The authors of the constitution were, in fact, embarking on a great experiment in government. Since the overthrow of the Roman Republic in 44 BC, no nation had been able to govern itself without kings, nobles, or warlords. By 1787, six years after Yorktown, and four years after the peace treaty signed with Great Britain, the confederation of former English colonies in North America was failing.
Here is the remarkable introduction by Lynne Cheney:
“When 1787 began, our young country was in turmoil. The central government was unable to pay off debts, there was armed insurrection in Massachusetts, and foreign governments were taking advantage of our weakness. The question of the hour, James Madison wrote, was ‘whether the American experiment was to be a blessing to the world or to blast forever the hopes which the republican cause had inspired.’
The framers of the Constitution made it a blessing, creating a new and stronger American union and flying in the face of prevailing wisdom as they did so. In the eighteenth century, representative government in a nation of vast scale was thought impossible, a recipe for chaos and confusion; but an extended republic based on popular sovereignty was exactly what the Constitution created in Philadelphia in the summer of 1787 envisaged. The government based upon it has now endured more than 220 years.
The story of our founding document is an important one for our children to know. It is a tale of persistence, as delegates kept on despite obstacles that at times made their task seem impossible. It is a tale of creativity, with the delegates providing a framework for a government entirely new. It is also a story that makes clear there was nothing inevitable about the Constitution that emerged from the Philadelphia convention. History might have gone otherwise but for the framers’ genius, and we should be grateful for James Madison, George Washington, Benjamin Franklin, and the others who gathered in Philadelphia. We should be grateful as well for men and women such as Frederick Douglass, Elizabeth Cady Stanton, and Martin Luther King Jr., who in later centuries took up the work of the founders, making the union formed in 1787 the more perfect one we know today.”
Cheney tells the story in a simple, straight-forward style. The proposal to separate the powers of government into three branches, the fierce debate and compromise over equal votes for each state or proportional representation in the legislative assembly; the call for a chaplain and prayer made by Franklin; and the debate over who would ratify the Constitution. The text has a quotation from a founder on almost every page that provides further insight into the issues. The paintings focus on the characters of the delegates. Gestures, glances, frowns, and extravagant gestures help the reader to understand the fierceness of the debates. There is a marvelous painting on one page of Washington taking the day off to go fishing and another that shows Franklin entertaining visitors in his garden.
The text overall is middle to upper elementary. The large illustrations will capture the attention of younger children if the text is read to them.
We the People by Lynne Cheney is a hardback, 40 pages, full color, $17.99 directly from Greenleaf Press.
– Rob Shearer
Publisher, Greenleaf Press
Director, Schaeffer Study Center
Spirit of the living God
Fall afresh on me
Spirit of the living God
Fall afresh on me
Break me, melt me, mould me, fill me
Spirit of the living God
Fall afresh on me
God certainly works in mysterious ways. I was notified over the weekend that someone had left a comment on RedHatRob on the “about” page.
The author was one Bill Iverson, who is a graduate of Davidson College, class of 1947 – about 30 years before my time. He had been a professor at King College in the late 1960s and took his students to Covenant College in 1971 to hear an unusual Christian apologist with an international ministry based in Switzerland – Francis Schaeffer of L’Abri.
But the story gets richer. Bill Iverson is also a retired Presbyterian minister who asked me a number of questions about the Schaeffer Study Center and prayed with me over the phone (which was a great encouragement). His father was Dan Iverson, a Presbyterian evangelist who was active in Florida in the 1920s, 1930s, & 1940s. In 1926, he wrote the hymn, Spirit of the Living God, Fall Afresh on Me.
When that song was first sung at an evangelistic event in 1926, it became the focus of an entire evangelistic meeting.
Here is Bill Iverson’s description:
My father’s famous chorus was written in the First Presbyterian Church, Orlando in 1926, located next to a 4000 capacity temporary tabernacle. He presented the hymn before preaching and never got to the sermon. The congregation sung the chorus for forty-five minutes. Helen Leonard, wife of Col. (Chaplain) Bill Leonard was ten years old at that time. She told my mother about how her father, Presbyterian evangelist George Stephens, gave an invitation after the one hymn worship service with four hundred persons responding. The atmosphere was electric and this one time in her life she knew what the Presence is.
I’ve added to the site a letter Bill composed to his dad a few months ago, on his Dad’s 118th birthday. Bill sent me a copy in an email earlier today.
Take a minute and read it: Bill Iverson – Tribute to my Father.
It will refresh, inspire and encourage you…
– Rob
Just published! And just in time for Thanksgiving.
The Mayflower and the Pilgrims’ New World by Nathaniel Philbrick.
“My first impression of the period consisted of two conflicting ideas: the time-honored tradition of how the Pilgrims came to symbolize all that is good about America, and the now equally familiar modern tale of how the evil Europeans killed the innocent Native Americans. I soon learned that the real-life Indians and the English of the seventeenth century were too smart, too generous, too greedy, too brave – in short, too human – to behave so predictably.”
Philbrick has done a remarkable job capturing the “too human” details about both Pilgrims and Indians in this story. This version is an adaptation the adult non-fiction book that was a New York Times bestseller. That book is worth reading for adults. This adaptation is a great read for upper middle school and high school students who want more details about the Pilgrims’ voyage, encounter with the Indians, survival, and eventual war.
Philbrick focuses on the leaders of the colony, especially elder William Brewster and Governor William Bradford. He also gives us a great deal of detail about the leaders of the New England Indians – Chief Massasoit, and the intriguing Squanto, both of whom emerge as shrewd, complex characters. The tragedy of the story is that Massasoit’s son decided to wage war on the English settlements in 1675, breaking the 55 years of (relative) peace which had been enjoyed between English settlers and Native Americans.
The book is divided into three parts (about 100 pages each): Discovery (1619-1621), Community (1625-1674), and War (1675-1676). The writing is excellent. The tone is matter-of-fact and nuanced. Philbrick is at pains to document and distinguish the good and bad behavior among all the players in this drama. The text is accompanied by an excellent series of maps, and interspersed with photographs of historical artifacts.
I’d recommend this as a great read for high school students studying American history.
The Mayflower and the Pilgrims’ New World
is a hardback, 338 pages. It is available directly from Greenleaf Press for $19.99.
– Rob Shearer
Publisher, Greenleaf Press
Director, Schaeffer Study Center
One of my email correspondents asked me what I feared from an Obama/Biden/Reid/Pelosi election triumph.
I still think McCain will win the election, but here’s my response:
Domestically:
My church does not ordain women, nor will we marry homosexual couples. Nor are we going to cease reading the Bible and preaching through all of the text. If Obama is elected president, I believe my church will lose its tax-exempt status and quite possibly face hate-speech/hate-crime charges within the next four years.
Obama will sign the federal freedom-of-choice act (he has pledged to do so in his first week) which will federalize the regulation of abortion, and repeal all state laws regulating abortion. There will be more abortions.
Obama will further federalize education. There will be pressure to enroll students at a younger age, and to “screen” families at risk for those in “need of services.” Nothing frightens homeschoolers more — with good reason.
Obama will seek to nationalize healthcare. This will result in higher taxes, lower to no economic growth, and a rationing of health care benefits. It works so well in Canada and the UK.
Foreign policy:
Obama will simultaneously capitulate in Iraq, abandoning everything that has been accomplished there while escalating in Afghanistan and Pakistan (partially in compensation). This will de-stabilize the region, leading to more bloodshed and more terrorism.
Obama will all-but-abandon our alliance with Israel, further emboldening the terrorist opponents of Israel. Significant loss of life and further terrorism.
Obama will appear reasonable to the Europeans and contemptible to the Russians, the Chinese, and the N. Koreans. The Europeans will continue to sneer at us behind our backs. The Russians and the Chinese will be emboldened and become more confrontational, believing they have little to fear by way of retaliation. The N. Koreans are just plain nuts. Obama’s new secretary of state will repeat Madeleine Albright’s hug of Kim Jong Il.
Obama’s reasonableness will be mistaken for weakness which will lead to power and territorial grabs by the Axis of Evil and we will be in another shooting war. In that war, the draft will be revived, “out of fairness,” and women will be included in the draft “out of fairness.” RedHatRob will go to jail attempting to resist the drafting of his daughters.
On the other Hand, if McCain wins . . .
Domestically:
McCain will not make federal hate-crime legislation a priority, thus postponing the creation of the thought-police for at least 4-8 years.
McCain will not federalize abortion regulation. Neither will the Supreme Court overturn Roe (much as I wish they would), but there will still be room for crisis pregnancy centers and adoption agencies to continue their work reducing the number of abortions.
McCain will not further federalize education (I wish he would repeal No Child Left Behind, but he probably won’t). Homeschoolers will still have to fight a never-ceasing battle to protect the right to homeschool against state legislatures, but at least the federal government won’t be leaning on the table-top tilting the playing field.
McCain will not institute nationalized healthcare. The people who pay taxes will breath a sigh of relief.
Foreign Policy:
The Europeans and the Axis of Evil won’t like McCain. But they won’t want to mess with him either. McCain will gradually withdraw combat troops from Iraq, without announcing any date certain for a complete pull-out. With a little luck, the Iraqi government will survive and the impact in the middle east will continue to be game-changing. McCain will retask the missions in Afghanistan & Pakistan, but quietly – no fanfare, no public announcements. That too has a reasonable chance to succeed.
McCain will continue US support for Israel. The Arab world won’t like it. But they won’t want to mess with him either.
N. Korea will remain nuts. Who knows?
There will be no need for a draft. Women will not be conscripted.
Oh… and we will have our first woman elected as Vice President!
Caveat:
On two issues, McCain will disappoint conservatives.
One: He will push an immigration reform package which includes amnesty for those already here.
Two: He will push an energy package which will fund research into alternative energy sources, open up drilling in limited parts of AK and the gulf & east coast, AND which will impose some sort of carbon emissions reduction scheme. Everybody will like parts of it and hate parts of it. The global warming component will be increasingly embarrassing as temperatures fall and new records are set for colder winters, more snowfall, and larger icecaps. But it will pass anyway, cause most congressman are stupid.
you asked…
– Rob Shearer (aka RedHatRob)
It’s been difficult to find detailed information about the Chicago Annenberg Challenge, but I have long suspected that it was the best source for insights into Sen. Obama’s policy ideas and expertise.
Recall, Barack Obama was the Chairman of the Board. The Board’s responsibilities included reviewing proposals from “external partners” and making decisions about whether to fund them or not.
There’s a lengthy new piece up today at NRO by Stanley Kurtz which examines some of the “external partners” that Sen. Obama and the board of the Chicago Annenberg Challenge voted to fund.
An excerpt:
In the winter of 1996, the Coalition for Improved Education in [Chicago’s] South Shore (CIESS) announced that it had received a $200,000 grant from the Chicago Annenberg Challenge. That made CIESS an “external partner,” i.e. a community organization linked to a network of schools within the Chicago public system. This network, named the “South Shore African Village Collaborative” was thoroughly “Afrocentric” in orientation. CIESS’s job was to use a combination of teacher-training, curriculum advice, and community involvement to improve academic performance in the schools it worked with. CIESS would continue to receive large Annenberg grants throughout the 1990s.
The South Shore African Village Collaborative (SSAVC) was very much a part of the Afrocentric “rites of passage movement,” a fringe education crusade of the 1990s. SSAVC schools featured “African-Centered” curricula built around “rites of passage” ceremonies inspired by the puberty rites found in many African societies. In and of themselves, these ceremonies were harmless. Yet the philosophy that accompanied them was not. On the contrary, it was a carbon-copy of Jeremiah Wright’s worldview.
I was pleased that Kurtz characterized the “rite of passage” ceremonies as “harmless.” I would be willing to go further and endorse creative attempts to foster a “rite of passage,” especially for adolescent males. This is not, by any means, an exclusively racial problem. It is specifically a male problem. Adolescent males are responsible for most of the disruptive and criminal behavior in our culture. There has been a breakdown in the cultural traditions which “tame” the wildness and irresponsibility of adolescent males.
Having said that, the South Shore African Village Collaborative seems to have latched onto theories of separatist black identity cultural politics as the source and trappings of their particular attempt to improve the schools in Chicago. It might have been well-intentioned, but the “black identity” politics of Jeffries, Hilliard, Wright, et al contain much that is objectionable. Their approach to cultural issues has appeal to their target audience but it is simplistic and demagogic. It amounts to the adoption of a single standard – all that is wrong in our culture is white and European. All that is admirable is African, black, and “kemetic.” Don’t get me started on “Kemet” and the wisdom of Ptah-hotep. It’s the X-files version of Egyptian history. Entertaining, yes. Scholarly, not.
I think Kurtz is right that this school initiative was at its core an attempt to forge an identity for school-children from the “black separatist” movements of the 1970s & 1980s. It helps explain Obama’s longstanding membership in Wright’s church. It also explains the alliance with and involvement of Prof. of Education Bill Ayers, whose main academic focus has been “white supremacy” in American education, which he views as a persistent and pervasive problem.
Perhaps Obama has altered his views on black separatism since the 1990’s. I confess I have the nagging suspicion that he has not completely disclosed or discussed his views on this topic during the campaign.
– Rob Shearer (aka RedHatRob)
From a story in today’s Pttsburgh Post-Gazette:
Candidates differ on female draft
Monday, October 13, 2008
By Jerome L. Sherman, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Even as the U.S. confronts two long wars, neither Sen. John McCain nor Sen. Barack Obama believes the country should take the politically perilous step of reviving the military draft.
But the two presidential candidates disagree on a key foundation of any future draft: Mr. Obama supports a requirement for both men and women to register with the Selective Service, while Mr. McCain doesn’t think women should have to register.
Also, Mr. Obama would consider officially opening combat positions to women. Mr. McCain would not.
“Women are already serving in combat [in Iraq and Afghanistan] and the current policy should be updated to reflect realities on the ground,” said Wendy Morigi, Mr. Obama’s national security spokeswoman. “Barack Obama would consult with military commanders to review the constraints that remain.”
The push to allow women to participate equally in all branches of the military in all positions leads inevitably to this result.
In the next war, women are going to be drafted.
I cannot conceive of a more misguided, more tragic policy position.
If Obama is elected president, my daughters and grand-daughters face conscription and involuntary military service.
Obama and the Democrats think this is just fine.
McCain is opposed to it.
I don’t need to know anything else about the two candidates.
– Rob Shearer (aka RedHatRob)
Dad to eight beautiful daughters. Uncle Sam can have them when you pry them from my cold dead fingers.
My sons are not happy with the prospect either . . .
In its never-ending desire to secure the election of Barack Obama, the mainstream media seems willing to commit all manner of journalistic malpractice.
The latest is the attempt to deflect the attention from Senator Obama’s Illinois political allies and supporters, William Ayers and Bernadine Dohrn (founders of the 1970’s terrorist group, the Weather Underground).
To do this, they’ve resorted to the fantasy that Todd Palin associated with terrorists in Alaska. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. posted an article on the Huffington Post attempting to do this. Kennedy’s article is a deceptive, misleading collection of half-truths. It has been accepted as gospel truth and widely circulated by defenders of Obama. It is a despicable piece of shoddy research, which even the author has to know is a falsehood.
In the article Kennedy asserts that Todd Palin joined the Alaska Independence Party and that the AIP was “rabidly and violently anti-American.”
Ironic of course, for any member of the political left to wrap themselves in the flag and profess outrage at “anti-Americanism.”
The facts in the story are simply wrong. Todd Palin didn’t “join” the AIP, and the AIP is hardly a hotbed of anti-American terrorists.
Todd Palin didn’t “join” the Alaska Independence Party – he selected it as his “party preference” when he registered to vote
This may seem like a mere technicality, but anyone who lives in a state where voters record their “party preference” knows what that means. In Alaska, voters have the option of registering their party preference. Todd Palin registered his party preference as Alaska Independence Party in October, 1995. In 2000, he changed his party preference to “undeclared,” and then a few months later changed it back to “Alaska Independence Party.” In July of 2002, he again changed his party preference to “undeclared.” See: http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/09/todd_palin_was_registered_memb.php
Note: the headline on this site is misleading. You don’t have to be a “member” of a political party to register your preference with the state division of elections. You are simply recording your party preference. There are three “third party” political groups in Alaska, the Alaska Independence Party, the Green Party, and the Patriot Party. Third parties in AK can have their nominees automatically placed on the ballot if at least 3% of the registered voters indicate the party as their “party preference” in their voter registration. This is obviously a great advantage to a third party, so they encourage as many voters as possible to select them as their party preference.
But what is the Alaska Independence Party?
I would encourage everyone who has an interest to surf over to the Alaska Independence Party website. (http://www.akip.org). It’s an opportunity for a good homeschooling moment on political science, the election process, and tracking down sources.
The Alaska Independence Party is remarkably mainstream. To characterize them as the “Weather Underground” of the frozen north is laughable. In fact, in 1990, the Alaska Independence Party nominated Walter Hickel for Governor. Hickel had been elected Governor of Alaska as a Republican in 1966, and in 1969 he was appointed US Secretary of the Interior. In 1990, he won the election for Governor of Alaska as the Independence Party Candidate, becoming one of only six third party candidates in US history to win a governor’s race (Jesse Ventura of MN, and Lowell Weicker of CT are two of the others). In 1994, the AIP nominated then Lt. Governor Coghill in the race for Governor. Coghill finished third, behind the Democratic winner Tony Knowles, and the Republican nominee Jim Campbell, but ahead of the Green Party and Patriot Party nominees.
Walter Hickel should be revered by the left.
In 1970 following the shooting of college students at Kent State University by the Ohio National Guard, Hickel wrote a letter critical of Nixon’s Vietnam War policy and urging him to give more respect to the views of young people critical of the war. This dissent garnered worldwide media attention, and on Nov 25, 1970, Hickel was fired over the letter.[1]
In 2006 Hickel endorsed Sarah Palin in her bid to become governor. In 2008, he called for the resignation of Alaska Senator Ted Stevens.
Somehow, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. managed to leave out of his Palin smear on the Huffington Post the fact that the Walter Hickel, candidate of the Alaska Independence Party, had actually been elected the Governor of Alaska in 1990.
Pretty radical stuff…
– Rob Shearer (aka RedHatRob)
There is at least one (probably many) article/entry in this book that will grab every reader and affect them deeply.
Our White House covers the history of the White House chronologically, from John Adams (the first president to reside there) down through George and Laura Bush. Some of you may remember that Laura Bush is a children’s librarian. The unique character of this book is that while many of the articles are first-person eyewitness accounts, an equal number have been contributed by a veritable who’s who of outstanding, award-winning children’s book authors and illustrators.
There are illustrations by Bagram Ibatoulline, Brian Selznick, Peter Sis, and Seven Kellogg among others. Even if you do not recognize those names, trust me, they’re some of the best children’s illustrators of the last thirty years.
The narratives include:
There are also numerous historical speeches and letters (by presidents and others)
The artwork is lush, the format is large and colorful. The variety is intriguing and impressive.
Our White House is a hardback, 9.5″ x11″, 256 pages available directly from Greenleaf Press for $29.99
– Rob Shearer, Publisher
Greenleaf Press
Here’s the publisher’s blurb:
“Conceived and co-created by the National Children’s Book and Literary Alliance, this incomparable collection of essays, personal accounts, historical fiction, and poetry melds with an equally stunning array of original art to offer a multifaceted look at America’s history through the prism of the White House. Starting with a 1792 call for designers to plan a presidential mansion and continuing through the present day, OUR WHITE HOUSE takes in everything from the amusing antics of presidents’ children and pets to the drama of the White House ablaze and the specter of war; from the role of immigrants, African Americans, and Native Americans to the thoughts and actions of many presidents themselves. These highly engaging writings and illustrations, expressing varied viewpoints and interwoven with key historical events, are a vital resource for family sharing and classroom use — and a stirring reminder that the story of the White House is the story of every American. More than one hundred leading authors and illustrators donate their talents in a creative tour de force that is making history.”