Category Archives: National Politics

2010 Election, National Politics, Tennessee politics

How Many Congressional Seats will the Republicans Win in Tennessee? part 2

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Yesterday I wrote a post that reported and commented on the 1st quarter fund-raising in Tennessee congressional races, specifically TN-06 and TN-08. TN-01, TN-02, TN-03 and TN-07 are currently held by Republicans and there is effectively zero chance of a Democrat winning any of them. I predict TN-06 and TN-08 will be won by Republicans. TN-09 will stay safely Democrat. Just as an aside, incumbent Democrat Steve Cohen has raised $429,885 in individual contributions in 1Q-2010. Democrat challenger Willie Herenton raised $3,400. Cohen has outraised Herenton 100 to 1. Oh, and Cohen has over $1 million on hand. Herenton reported $5,400 in the bank.

Which leaves TN-04 and TN-05. TN-04 has been a Democrat seat for the overwhelming majority of the last 100 years. Van Hilleary won the seat in the 1994 Gingrich revolution. Lincoln Davis won it back for the Democrats in 2002 when Van ran for Governor (and lost to Phil Bredesen). Although the district previously elected Al Gore and Jim Cooper (before he left to run for Senate against Fred Thompson), it has trended more conservative and Republican and has been a competitive seat. In 2010, it’s going to be hard to defend. The first fund-raising reports certainly seem to indicate that this will be a horse-race. Here are the totals for individual contributions (not including PAC money or loans from candidates to their own campaigns):

R Scott Desjarlais $235,778
D Lincoln Davis $221,005
R Jack Bailey $143,575
R Kent Greenough $14,713
R Donald Strong $0

Either Desjarlais or Bailey looks poised to provide a strong challenge to Davis. If 2010 is like 1994, then Davis is in trouble.

TN-05 has been, after TN-09, the safest Democrat seat in the state. In 2008, Cooper raised $338k in individual contributions. His Republican challenger, Gerard Donovan, raised $8,610. In 2006, Cooper raised $471k – the records for his Republican challenger, Kovach aren’t available online. In 2004, Cooper raised $459k. Back in 2002, Republican Bob Duvall raised barely $10k to Cooper’s $864k. Of course 2002 was the first year Cooper was elected and he had first had to win a contested Democratic primary. None of Cooper’s Republican opponents have presented much of a challenge to him.  But the financial records show that the amount he has raised in individual contributions has trended down since 2002. Things look a bit different in 2010. For one thing, there are 11 candidates (8 Republicans, 2 Independents, and 1 Libertarian) who have filed to run against Cooper. The large number of candidates filing is a strong indication that something is up. And one of the Republicans (Jeff Hartline) has already raised more money for the race than all four of Cooper’s previous opponents combined (admittedly not that high a hurdle, but still significant). Here are the numbers:

D Jim Cooper $240,970
R Jeff Hartline $45,155
R Patrick Miranda $5,405
I Jacquie Miller $2,187
R Jarod Scott $1,105
L Stephen Collings $30
R Brendan Finucane $0
R David Hall $0
R Cecilia Noland-Heil $0
R Bob Ries $0
R Lonnie Spivak $0
I John Miglietta $0

Could Hartline beat Cooper? In a normal election year, the answer would be no. But 2010 is shaping up to be anything but a normal election year. Hartline looks to be the favorite to win the Republican nomination. If he is able to continue to raise money and can get his message out, Cooper could be vulnerable. Hartline appears to be a more effective speaker and campaigner than any of Cooper’s previous challengers.

If the 2010 tsunami is as big as some think it might be, then there is the distinct possibility that Tennessee might end up with eight Republicans and one Democrat in its congressional delegation. That result would have been unthinkable two years ago. It remains a long shot. But it has already gone from an impossibility to a possibility.

For those who have no idea who Jeff Hartline is, take about 4 minutes and watch this video:

and imagine going from this map:

to this map:

to this map:

2010 Election, National Politics, Tennessee politics

How Many Congressional Seats will the Republicans Win in Tennessee? part 1

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Tennessee has nine Congressional seats. For most of this the past century, seven of those seats were routinely occupied by Democrats, and two by Republicans. But the two east Tennessee Republicans have been joined by two others over the past few decades as TN-03 (Chattanooga) and TN-07 (Memphis suburbs to Nashville suburbs) switched to the R column.

Now it looks fairly certain that two more seats are about to be converted from Democrat to Republican. The demographics seem to indicate that the changes may well be semi-permanent. Bart Gordon is retiring from TN-06, and John Tanner is retiring from TN-08. Both incumbent Democrats were going to have a hard time getting re-elected had they stayed in the race.

Two other seats, currently held by Democrats Jim Cooper (TN-05) and Lincoln Davis (TN-04) are attracting a surprising amount of attention and activity. They could also be in play (more on them in a later post). Only TN-09 seems safely Democrat at this point, and it seems fairly certain that Steve Cohen will retain the seat – more on that later, as well.

Of all the races, TN-06 has attracted the most attention. There are six Republicans, three Democrats, and one independent who have filed for the race. First quarter financial reports have been filed with the FEC. Raising the most money doesn’t guarantee that a candidate will win, but it’s pretty strongly correlated. Here’s what the money looks like in TN-06. The dollar amount is the total raised from individual contributions (not counting PAC money, or loans from the candidates to their own campaigns), 1/1/2010 thru 3/31/2010:

R Jim Tracy $533,647
R Diane Black $271,591
R Lou Ann Zelenik $129,767
R Dale Evans $34,970
R Kerry Roberts $33,944
R Gary Mann $3,200
D George Erdel $375
D Brett Carter $0
I Tommy Hay $0
D Benjamin Leming $0

I’d say this one is definitely an “R” pickup.

TN-08 will be more of a horse race. There are ten candidates here as well, eight Republicans and two Democrats. One of the Democrats, Roy Herron seems poised to make this a contest. Here are the fund-raising numbers (Individual contributions – not counting PAC money, or loans from the candidates to their own campaigns):

R Steve Fincher $970,095
D Roy Herron $822,866
R Ron Kirkland $607,357
R George Flinn $156,355
R Donn Janes $10,937
R Randy Smith $300
R James Hart $142
D Luther Mercer $0
R David Rice $0
R Craig Steinfels $0

I’d give the edge to Fincher in this one right now, but there is still a long time till November.

IF the Republicans manage to win both these seats, then the 112th Congressional map for Tennessee will look like this:

Stay tuned – in part two, I’ll report and comment on the numbers from TN-04 and TN-05.

2010 Election, National Politics

Sarah Palin must really scare them

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Change.org, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Obama, Inc, sent out an email today urging all of its members, affiliates, subscribers, & sychophants to “Send a powerful message to Discovery Communications expressing your disappointment at their action and urging them to drop Sarah Palin’s new show from their programming schedule.”

Said powerful message is conveniently supplied for you. All you have to do is sign your name – which 9,000 Obama-zombies dutifully did in the first hour.

Stop and think about this for a minute. Sarah Palin is a private citizen. She is, of course  the former governor of Alaska, and the 2008 Republican nominee for vice-president, but she currently holds no elected office. She’s not currently a candidate for any elected office.

But Team Obama thinks that the most important project of the week (they only send out one action call a week from Change.org) is to try to get her fired from the Discovery Channel.

Three comments:

A) this is outrageous conduct by a sitting president

B) Obama’s vendetta against Palin is petty, personal, and unbecoming

C) the shrill charges that Palin wanted to wipe out beluga whales and polar bears are just plain silly.

The bottom line message from all of this of course is, Obama is really, REALLY, scared of Sarah Palin.

National Politics

The Federal Government is urging me to falsify census data

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Our census form arrived in the mail today.

Inside was a letter, with a message from the Director, U.S. Census Bureau, urging me to “Please complete and mail back the enclosed census form today.”

The mail arrived on March 15th, and the message inside is dated March 15th.

There’s just one teeny tiny problem with this. The Census Form instructs me to answer all questions based on who is living in this house, apartment, or mobile home on April 1st, 2010.

But they’re urging me to fill it out today, March 15th.

Do they want me to guess? time travel? make stuff up?

What if I fill out the form today and our house burns down in the next two weeks and there’s nobody living here on April 1st?

What if the rest of the world burns down and all my kids and grandkids move back home and there’s 17 people living here on April 1st?

Would they charge me with falsifying data on the Census form?

Incidentally, me and all my kids are Americans. I’m just sayin’.

A message from the Director, U.S. Census Bureau

Homeschooling, National Politics

Lies from Public Education

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“It is impossible to have a public debate about education policy if public schools can’t be straight forward about their spending.”

A new report from the Cato Institute shows that public school systems are deliberately fudging the numbers on the cost of public education. Typical school system tactics are to exclude healthcare or retirement costs of public school employees, or the capital costs of building school buildings or debt service payments on school bonds.

Watch this video. It will make your blood boil.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzvKyfV3JtE

The District of Columbia spends $28,000 per pupil, per year. That’s MORE than all but the most expensive DC private schools. This ought to be a major scandal.

You can read the full report, titled They Spend What? The Full Cost of Public School at the Cato Institute website.

At the current under-reported rate of $7,620 for the state of Tennessee, Mrs. RedHatRob and I have saved our local school system $1,005,840 by educating our 11 children at home. At that’s without charging them for Kindergarten, which would have been another $83,820.

global warming, National Politics

Global? I do not think that word means what you think it means

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Global is supposed to mean world-wide, as in a “global catastrophe.”A global phenomenon should affect everyone, everywhere.

For the past two weeks, the average high temp in Nashville has been 45. Historically, our average high temp in February is 55. For the next week, the average high temp is forecast to be approx. 45 each day. This is not just a one fluke day anomaly. We’re running a month of consecutive days where our temps are 10 degrees below normal.

In layman’s terms, it’s cold.

But the AGW true believers are quick to assert that this in no way refutes the documented long-term trend of global warming. The models, they assure, in fact predict that there will be more extreme weather, more snow, more record cold days. Right.

I am reminded of John Wisdom’s parable of the invisible gardener, which runs thus:

“Two people return to their long neglected garden and find, among the weeds, that a few of the old plants are surprisingly vigorous. One says to the other, ‘It must be that a gardener has been coming and doing something about these weeds.’ The other disagrees and an argument ensues. They pitch their tents and set a watch. No gardener is ever seen. The believer wonders if there is an invisible gardener, so they patrol with bloodhounds but the bloodhounds never give a cry. Yet the believer remains unconvinced, and insists that the gardener is invisible, has no scent and gives no sound. The sceptic doesn’t agree, and asks how a so-called invisible, intangible, elusive gardener differ from an imaginary gardener, or even no gardener at all.”

And so, I ask the AGW true believers, How does this invisible, intangible, elusive global warming which produces cold weather and more snow differ from imaginary global warming, or even, no global warming at all?

global warming, National Politics

Warm Air carries more water?

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With 40+ inches of global warming on the ground in the Washington DC area, defenders of global warming have been scrambling to deflect or rebut the taunting of the skeptics. Contessa Brewer of CNN, attempting to swim in waters way over her head, made the assertion online that the large snowfalls on the East Coast don’t refute global warming, because warm air carries more moisture. The heavier snowfalls, according to the dear Contessa, are actually BECAUSE of global warming – because warm air carries more moisture.

While technically this assertion is true, it doesn’t help the defenders of global warming one inch! If the syllogism “global warming -> more moisture -> more snowfall” were true, then we ought to see more total inches of precipitation in the DC area, right?

Let’s go to the numbers, Johnny.

Over the past 30 years, the average precipitation for the month of January at Washington Reagan Airport has been 2.72 inches.

Total precipitation for January of 2010? 1.37 inches.

Average precipitation for the month of February? 2.71 inches

Precip so far for February of 2010? 1.79 inches.

Yep, from these stats its clear to see that the warmer air caused by global warming has been carrying more moisture and that this has been causing the large snowfall amounts in DC.

Wait.. No, that’s not right… Something…

Never mind.

Perhaps Contessa Brewer should get out an elementary science book and remind herself of this simple science fact. When it’s warm the moisture in the air comes down as RAIN. When it’s cold, the moisture in the air comes down as SNOW.

Is there any difference in the amount of moisture / precipitation in DC this year vs the past 30 years. NO!

There. Is. No. Increase. In. The. Amount. of. Moisture!.

The only difference is that it’s COLDER.

Which leads me to a prediction. It’s only a matter of time before Contessa informs us that Gobal Warming is causing it to be COLDER.