Tag Archives: John McCain

2008 Election

Why have McCain & Obama spent so much time in PA?

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Because it is legitimately in play.

I am convinced the polls are faulty this year. Lots of others have analyzed them, but the basic critique boiled down is that faulty premises lead to faulty conclusions. The polls are a mathematical model. There are two ways they can err. If the data collected and input into the model is inaccurate, the model will yield inaccurate results. If the data are accurate, but the model does not accurately represent the election day total universe voter behavior, likewise the results will be inaccurate.

These two sources of error are in addition to the normal statistical problems of sampling errors and confidence limits. And the errors in both categories are biased in favor of democrats.

Data collection errors are rife this year. High refusal rates, deliberate deception by respondents, self-selection bias based on enthusiasm for a candidate, gaps between intent to vote and actual voting behavior, interviewer bias, shy voters, etc. Don’t even get me started on the Bradley effect.

Model errors won’t be known until after election day, but all of the pollsters have made changes in their turnout models because they are predicting that voter behavior will be different in 2008 from 2004. Ironically the massive numbers of ACORN fraudulent registrations tend to bias the polling results – because pollsters weight their results based upon the ratio of voters registered as democrats vs. voters registered as republicans.

The youth vote. Bottom line: youths do not vote. James Carville has been famously quoted as saying that there is a name for those candidates who depend upon the youth vote: “LOSERS!”

Back to Pennsylvania:

Gore won Pennsylvania by 3.5% in 2000 (205,000 votes).

Kerry won Pennsylvania by 2.5% in 2004 (140,000 votes)

Who in the class of readers today believes that Obama will be a stronger candidate in Pennsylvania than Gore or Kerry?

Class? Class? Anyone? Bueller?

Bitter. Clinging. Guns. Religion. Joe-the-Plumber. Bankrupting coal.

McCain takes Pennsylvania.

Game over.

Congratulations to John S. McCain, 44th President of the United States.

– RedHatRob

Hat tip to SeanMalstrom who has done a much more detailed analysis.

2008 Election

What if Obama wins? What if McCain wins?

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One of my email correspondents asked me what I feared from an Obama/Biden/Reid/Pelosi election triumph.

I still think McCain will win the election, but here’s my response:

Domestically:
My church does not ordain women, nor will we marry homosexual couples. Nor are we going to cease reading the Bible and preaching through all of the text. If Obama is elected president, I believe my church will lose its tax-exempt status and quite possibly face hate-speech/hate-crime charges within the next four years.

Obama will sign the federal freedom-of-choice act (he has pledged to do so in his first week) which will federalize the regulation of abortion, and repeal all state laws regulating abortion. There will be more abortions.

Obama will further federalize education. There will be pressure to enroll students at a younger age, and to “screen” families at risk for those in “need of services.” Nothing frightens homeschoolers more — with good reason.

Obama will seek to nationalize healthcare. This will result in higher taxes, lower to no economic growth, and a rationing of health care benefits. It works so well in Canada and the UK.

Foreign policy:
Obama will simultaneously capitulate in Iraq, abandoning everything that has been accomplished there while escalating in Afghanistan and Pakistan (partially in compensation). This will de-stabilize the region, leading to more bloodshed and more terrorism.

Obama will all-but-abandon our alliance with Israel, further emboldening the terrorist opponents of Israel. Significant loss of life and further terrorism.

Obama will appear reasonable to the Europeans and contemptible to the Russians, the Chinese, and the N. Koreans. The Europeans will continue to sneer at us behind our backs. The Russians and the Chinese will be emboldened and become more confrontational, believing they have little to fear by way of retaliation. The N. Koreans are just plain nuts. Obama’s new secretary of state will repeat Madeleine Albright’s hug of Kim Jong Il.

Obama’s reasonableness will be mistaken for weakness which will lead to power and territorial grabs by the Axis of Evil and we will be in another shooting war. In that war, the draft will be revived, “out of fairness,” and women will be included in the draft “out of fairness.” RedHatRob will go to jail attempting to resist the drafting of his daughters.

On the other Hand, if McCain wins . . .


Domestically:
McCain will not make federal hate-crime legislation a priority, thus postponing the creation of the thought-police for at least 4-8 years.

McCain will not federalize abortion regulation. Neither will the Supreme Court overturn Roe (much as I wish they would), but there will still be room for crisis pregnancy centers and adoption agencies to continue their work reducing the number of abortions.

McCain will not further federalize education (I wish he would repeal No Child Left Behind, but he probably won’t). Homeschoolers will still have to fight a never-ceasing battle to protect the right to homeschool against state legislatures, but at least the federal government won’t be leaning on the table-top tilting the playing field.

McCain will not institute nationalized healthcare. The people who pay taxes will breath a sigh of relief.

Foreign Policy:
The Europeans and the Axis of Evil won’t like McCain. But they won’t want to mess with him either. McCain will gradually withdraw combat troops from Iraq, without announcing any date certain for a complete pull-out. With a little luck, the Iraqi government will survive and the impact in the middle east will continue to be game-changing. McCain will retask the missions in Afghanistan & Pakistan, but quietly – no fanfare, no public announcements. That too has a reasonable chance to succeed.

McCain will continue US support for Israel. The Arab world won’t like it. But they won’t want to mess with him either.

N. Korea will remain nuts. Who knows?

There will be no need for a draft. Women will not be conscripted.

Oh… and we will have our first woman elected as Vice President!

Caveat:
On two issues, McCain will disappoint conservatives.

One: He will push an immigration reform package which includes amnesty for those already here.

Two: He will push an energy package which will fund research into alternative energy sources, open up drilling in limited parts of AK and the gulf & east coast, AND which will impose some sort of carbon emissions reduction scheme. Everybody will like parts of it and hate parts of it. The global warming component will be increasingly embarrassing as temperatures fall and new records are set for colder winters, more snowfall, and larger icecaps. But it will pass anyway, cause most congressman are stupid.

you asked…

– Rob Shearer (aka RedHatRob)

2008 Election

Obama favors drafting women – McCain is opposed

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From a story in today’s Pttsburgh Post-Gazette:

Candidates differ on female draft
Monday, October 13, 2008
By Jerome L. Sherman, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Even as the U.S. confronts two long wars, neither Sen. John McCain nor Sen. Barack Obama believes the country should take the politically perilous step of reviving the military draft.

But the two presidential candidates disagree on a key foundation of any future draft: Mr. Obama supports a requirement for both men and women to register with the Selective Service, while Mr. McCain doesn’t think women should have to register.

Also, Mr. Obama would consider officially opening combat positions to women. Mr. McCain would not.

“Women are already serving in combat [in Iraq and Afghanistan] and the current policy should be updated to reflect realities on the ground,” said Wendy Morigi, Mr. Obama’s national security spokeswoman. “Barack Obama would consult with military commanders to review the constraints that remain.”

The push to allow women to participate equally in all branches of the military in all positions leads inevitably to this result.

In the next war, women are going to be drafted.

I cannot conceive of a more misguided, more tragic policy position.

If Obama is elected president, my daughters and grand-daughters face conscription and involuntary military service.

Obama and the Democrats think this is just fine.

McCain is opposed to it.

I don’t need to know anything else about the two candidates.

– Rob Shearer (aka RedHatRob)
Dad to eight beautiful daughters. Uncle Sam can have them when you pry them from my cold dead fingers.
My sons are not happy with the prospect either . . .


2008 Election

What Bristol Palin’s pregnancy really reveals

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Before the news about Bristol Palin’s pregnancy was barely a few hours old, the hyenas of the left gathered — gleeful and gloating, set to make Bristol’s pregnancy as difficult and stressful as possible.

Every candidate takes a position on the Life issue, establishes himself or herself as either a pro-pro-life or an anti-pro-life. Everyone stakes out a position, but, very few candidates actually walk out those positions in the way the Palins have and are.

So how do Barack Obama and Sarah Palin come across?

Obama on what he would call “inconvenient” life:

Before birth: Abortion. After birth (when abortion fails): Infanticide. Severely handicapped adults like Teri Schiavo: Death by starvation and dehydration.

And yet, citing the Gospel According to Matthew, Obama tells Rick Warren that American’s biggest moral failing is selfishness. “We still don’t abide by that basic precept of Matthew: that whatever you do for the least of my brothers, you do for me.”

Of course, Obama conveniently redefines “least of these” to mean anything but the pre-born, accidentally newborn, or the handicapped adult.

Palin on what she would never call “inconvenient” life:

“We’ve both been very vocal about being pro-life. We understand that every innocent life has wonderful potential.”

Children born with so-called disabilities: “I see a perfect child.”

Pregnant, unmarried children: “Our beautiful daughter Bristol came to us with news that as parents we knew would make her grow up faster than we had ever planned. We are proud of if Bristol’s decision to have her baby,”

Grandchildren conceived outside of marriage: ” . . .and [We are] even prouder to become grandparents.”

The Obama attitude toward babies:

“I’ve got two daughters. I am going to teach them first of all about values and morals, but if they make a mistake, I don’t want them punished with a baby, I don’t want them punished with an STD.”

In other words, Obama’s position is that an unwanted baby is about as welcome as an STD.

The Palin attitude toward babies:

Whatever the circumstances of a baby’s conception, prenatal development, or birth, babies are beautiful, perfect, and cherished.

To the salivating hyenas of the left, one question: Whose grandchild would you rather be?

– Cyndy Shearer (wife of RedHatRob)